さあ！諸君！捕鯨問題だ！

（南半球ミンククジラ資源量推定小委員会報告／つづき）
4. Noting in particular the estimates provided in Doc 20, the concensus of the
Sub-committee is that the above scheme underestimates stocks in Areas V and VI.
Estimates for Areas I and V provided by Doc 20 were 96.5 and 64.0 thousand,
respectively. These seemed high and were treated as indices of abundance.
Their ratio was then applied to the previous estimate for Area I, thus yealding
an adjusted estimate for Area V:

Nv =(64.0 /96.5) x 20.4 = 13.5

An estimate for Area VI was then obtained by multiplying the adjusted estimate
for Area V by the ratio of relative indices for Areas V and VI:

Nvi = ( .22 / .32 ) x 13.5 = 9.3

These procedures yielded estimates of initial stock size which are given in
Table 1.

5. Current stock sizes for each Area (Table 1) were then forward calculated
utilizing the model:

Ni = (Ni-1 - Ci-1 ) e ^-M -MNo

where catches were taken from Rep 12 and M = 0.125 as noted in Doc 5 and 32.
Brazilian catches were included in with those from Area II; and Natal catches
with those from Area III.

TABLE 1
STOCK LEVELS FOR S HEMISPHERE MINKE WHALES
S OF 40°S
______________________________MSY LEVEL____RATIO (CURRENT/MSY)
________Initial___Current____.5 _____.6_____.7______.5____.6____.7___
I________20.4____18.1_______10.2__12.2__14.3____1.77___1.48___1.26
II________33.7___31.5_______16.9__20.2__23.6____1.86___1.56___1.33
III_______39.1____36.1_______19.6__23.5__27.4____1.84___1.54___1.32
IV_______23.7___14.0_______11.9__14.2__16.6____1.18_____.99____.84
V_______13.5____13.0________6.8___8.1___9.5_____1.91___1.60___1.37
VI________9.3_____9.3________4.7___5.6___6.5_____2.00___1.66___1.43
TOTAL_139.7___122.0

＝＝＝以上、1975年IWC科学委員会・南半球ミンククジラ資源量推定小委員会報告全文＝＝＝

最初に推定作業のベースになっている正木論文のTable 18 は以下のとおり。
1975 科学委員会 論文 SC/27/Doc18
Japanese Pelagic Whaling and Sighting in the Antarctic, 1974/75
Yasuaki Masaki p.347 MASAKI
Table 18 Abandance of minke whales by means of whale sighting in the Antarctic south of 30°S (case III).
__________ I________II______III______IV____V_____VI________Total
1965/66____0________0______0______-______-_____-__________0+
1966/67____0_____2,300___1,700____4,800___1,100___0_______9,900
1967/68____-________-_____6,100_101,200__22,800__15,000__145,100+
1968/69____-________-____34,900__59,400___1,800___4,200__100,300+
1969/70___1, 700___7,200__10,300__35,900_____-_____-_______55,100+
1970/71_____-_______-____12,800__16,500__10,300___0_______39,600+
1971/72_____-_______-____26,200__91 ,500___3,200___-______120,900+
1972/73_____-_______-___182,700__59,300___27,100__23,700__292,800+
1973/74_229,500_241,800_612,100___31,100__15,400__12,200_1,142,100
1974/75___3,500_134,900___9 ,900___90,400__56,200__28,400__323,300
_______________________________________________________________
Average___46,900__77,200__89,700__54,500__17,200__11,900___297,400
_______________________________________________________________