対米全面テロ

The logic behind the bombing


by our Middle East editor Bertus Hendriks, 2 September 2003





（原文後半）


Sunni suspects
For the time being, the uprising against the Americans boils down to a Sunni revolt, limited to areas northwest and north of Baghdad and to the capital itself. These areas are home to the predominantly Sunni Muslims and tribes from which Saddam recruited the bulk of his security services and leading government officials. With the exception of the Najaf bombing and some bloody incidents in and around Basra, the Shi'ite south has

Tile mosaic in Shi´ite mosque



remained relatively calm. The largest and best-organised Shi'ite movement - the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) led by Ayatollah Mohammad Baqer al-Hakim until Friday ? is taking part in both the US-founded Iraqi Governing Council and the provisional Iraqi cabinet installed on Monday.

Although marked by a great deal of mutual distrust, this Shi'ite-US collaboration can easily be explained. If the US blueprint for a more democratic Iraq were to become reality, it could rigger a revolutionary shift of power in favour of the Shi'ite community. This would remedy what could be called the Iraqi state's "birth defect": ever since its founding in 1920, Iraq has been dominated by the Sunni minority. Both under the former monarchy and under Ba'ath rule, Shi'ites were allowed into the elite, but never in the numbers and key positions they could claim according to their majority status.

Shi'ite prospects
Now, Shi'ite representatives take up 13 of the 25 positions within the Governing Council and on the list of cabinet ministers presented on Monday ? an unprecedented development even though these bodies have yet to assume genuine power. It signals the opportunities that a more democratic Iraq has in store for the Shi'ite community as a whole (as well as Kurds for that matter). No doubt, the followers of Saddam's regime won't be particularly keen on this scenario.

Of course, those that stand to benefit from the current chaos aren't necessarily the culprits of the recent spate of bombings. An intensifying power struggle within the Shi'ite clergy cannot be ruled out, nor can the involvement of al-Qaeda members infiltrating the country ? a source of mounting speculation within US quarters.

But whoever is behind the violence, it's clear the future and stability of Iraq largely depends on the US ability to keep the Shi'ite community on board.

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