対イラク武力行使

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/jan-june06/sadr_3-27.html

JUDITH YAPHE:Well,it could be very important, depending on who was
responsible for what, but perception is more important than reality
in this region.
But a confrontation with him could trigger more serious fighting and
could put us in a very difficult position. Sadr controls much of Shiite
section of Baghdad, the southern section, where 2.5 million Shia live.
It could be a high-risk proposition; it could trigger further fighting;
it could be a tipping point. On the other hand, they could be out so far
they say, "Whoops, we've made a mistake. We need to pull back a bit."

誰が何にかかわっているかにもよりますが、非常に重要でしょう。
イラクでは現実より、それをどう捉えるかがより重要な意味を持つのです。
サドル師との対決は、より激しい戦闘の引き金となり、
米軍をより困難な情況に追い込みかねません。
サドル師はバグダッド南部250万人のシーア派居住地域の大半を
掌握しているのです。ですから、高いリスクを持ち得る訳です。
更なる衝突の引き金となり、戦いの戦端とも成り得る訳です。
しかし一方では、これは間違った、撤退する必要があると
言い出すことも考えられます。


JIM LEHRER: Who says, "We made a mistake,"
the U.S. and the Iraqi forces or al-Sadr?

誰の台詞ですか、米軍ですか、イラク軍ですか、サドル師ですか。


JUDITH YAPHE: Well, that's a good question. Both sides, I would guess. "
I'm sorry I didn't mean to do that."
But I would think that how far they want this go, do they want this to
turn into civil war? Do they want it to turn into a much more widespread
fighting and killing? My guess is not, because then things really do
spin out of control.

それは良い質問ですね。双方ともだと思いますよ。
そんな積もりはなかったと、しかし双方とも攻撃をどこまで持ち込みたいのか、
内戦に引き込みたいのか、戦闘、殺戮をより拡大させたいのか、
そういう意味では、私はそうではないと思います。
そういう事態となれば、それこそ事態は収拾がつかなくなってしまいますから。


JUAN COLE:Well,it's a turning point, in a way. Up until fairly recently,
for the most part, the mainstream of the Shiite community in Iraq has
felt that the United States was on their side, that they were allies.
Now, in the wake of the blowing up of the Golden Shrine in Samarra,
the sectarian violence that occurred there after, the U.S. is
perceived increasingly to be intervening on the side of the Sunnis.
And this incident that occurred where this Shiite religious building
appears to have been attacked did kill others than just Sadr's followers
At least one man who was killed belonged to the Dawa Party, which has an
office in that area. And so the prime minister of Iraq, Ibrahim Jaafari,
belongs to the Dawa Party.
So the reaction to this incident is not coming just from Sadr's people;
it's coming from the Shiite political elite across the board.
And the Iraqi official television channel was very critical of the U.S.
The municipal authorities of Baghdad came out and announced that they
won't cooperate with the U.S. until this is cleared up. People have
call ed for an investigation.
So this is really an issue of: What is the relationship of the U.S.
forces in Iraq to the Shiite mainstream? Because they cannot stay there
if the Shiites turn on them.