イラク戦争

日本のアホナ評論家と違い鋭い分析ですけど分るかな。

In Iraq, and in Palestine, when Saddam and Yasir Arafat toppled over like walls, their disappearances did not leave behind civil societies yearning to be free, united and democratic. Saddam and Arafat were products of their societies more than we want to admit - not artificial impositions.

In the long run their departures are huge opportunities. But in the short run they have left behind two pots that are boiling over - two highly tribalized societies, full of pent-up problems, with few civil society institutions or consensus leaders. They left behind two huge rebuilding challenges. The Bush team helped remove the lids off both these pots. But the first rule of cooking and warfare is: Never take the lid off a boiling pot unless you also have a strategy for turning down the heat. President Bush had a lid-removing strategy only. He's been improvising on the heat part ever since.

Improv time is over. This is crunch time. Iraq will be won or lost in the next few months. But it won't be won with high rhetoric. It will be won on the ground in a war over the last mile.

Winning in Iraq is now about who has the smarts, the focus, the gumption, the strategy, the coordination skills and the follow-through to get control of the last mile. Can we pull off a decent election in Iraq, with some Sunni participation, and produce a reasonably legitimate government there, for which the police and army will fight, or will the insurgents thwart that? Can we connect the electricity and sewers and get more jobs going, so more Iraqis are invested in peace, or will the insurgents thwart that? Can we make sure that the 570-plus election polling places will be secure from suicide bombers, or will the insurgents thwart that? Can we finally build an effective U.S. information campaign in Iraq and the Arab world, or will we cede the field to Al Jazeera instead? Can we neutralize meddling by the Iranians and Syrians in the Iraqi elections, or will they outfox us?

Wars are fought for political ends. Soldiers can only do so much. And the last mile in every war is about claiming the political fruits. The bad guys in Iraq can lose every mile on every road, but if they beat America on the last mile - because they are able to intimidate better than America is able to coordinate, protect, inform, invest and motivate - they will win and America will lose.