同年科学委員会に提出されたデラマーレ論文
投稿者： r13812 投稿日時： 2008/09/03 08:50 投稿番号： [27522 / 62227]
特別捕獲による主要研究対象である南極海ミンククジラの自然死亡率は「実際上、推定不可能であることは、南極海調査捕鯨が開始されてから間もなく指摘されていた。シミュレーション分析から……（自然死亡率）の信頼区間は正負どちらの値もとり得る、つまり不老不死（！）のクジラもあり得るほど広がってしまう、という結果が報告されたのである。これは反捕鯨国の科学者が発表したものであるが、捕鯨推進国の日本が皮肉にもその分析を裏付ける結果となった」との指摘が石井敦東北大准教授よりなされている。石井敦「調査捕鯨における『科学』の欠如は漁業資源交渉に悪影響を及ぼしかねない」『科学』第78巻7号（2008年7月）、704〜705頁。なお、上記の旨が指摘されている報告は以下のものである。W. K. de la Mare: in International Whaling Commission, "Report of International Whaling Commission," Vol. 40 (1990), pp. 489-492.
（Wiki「国際捕鯨委員会」）
IWC科学委員会に提出され、1990年、第40回IWC年報に公表されたデラマーレの論文
REP. INT. WHAL. COMMN 40, 1990 p.489-492 SC/41/O１
[A Further Note on the Simultaneous Estimation of Natural
Mortality Rate and Population Trend from Catch-at-age Data ]
William K. de la Mare
Marine and Ecological Research, Keizersgracht 176, 1016 DW Amsterdam, The Netherlands
ABSTRACT
At the 1988 meeting of the IWC Scientific Committee there remained a lack of consensus on what could be estimated in principle from
a time series of catch-at-age data. This note examines the extent to which such data can be used to calculate age-dependent natural
mortality rates and time series of recruitments where there is independent information on trend in population size, and where aged
samples can be collected free of the effects of age-specific selectivity. Simulations are used to examine the likely precision of estimated
mortality schedules. The analyses include the ideal circumstance where the age distributions of the populations are known without
error. The results from using a time series of twenty abundance indices with a lognormal distribution having a coefficient of variation
of 0.15, and perfect age data, show that the estimates of natural mortality are not precise (coefficient of variation 0.21). It is shown
that use of estimates of natural mortality with this precision does not lead to reliable calculated trends in recruitment.
http://8323.teacup.com/kujiradonano/bbs/1555
（Wiki「国際捕鯨委員会」）
IWC科学委員会に提出され、1990年、第40回IWC年報に公表されたデラマーレの論文
REP. INT. WHAL. COMMN 40, 1990 p.489-492 SC/41/O１
[A Further Note on the Simultaneous Estimation of Natural
Mortality Rate and Population Trend from Catch-at-age Data ]
William K. de la Mare
Marine and Ecological Research, Keizersgracht 176, 1016 DW Amsterdam, The Netherlands
ABSTRACT
At the 1988 meeting of the IWC Scientific Committee there remained a lack of consensus on what could be estimated in principle from
a time series of catch-at-age data. This note examines the extent to which such data can be used to calculate age-dependent natural
mortality rates and time series of recruitments where there is independent information on trend in population size, and where aged
samples can be collected free of the effects of age-specific selectivity. Simulations are used to examine the likely precision of estimated
mortality schedules. The analyses include the ideal circumstance where the age distributions of the populations are known without
error. The results from using a time series of twenty abundance indices with a lognormal distribution having a coefficient of variation
of 0.15, and perfect age data, show that the estimates of natural mortality are not precise (coefficient of variation 0.21). It is shown
that use of estimates of natural mortality with this precision does not lead to reliable calculated trends in recruitment.
http://8323.teacup.com/kujiradonano/bbs/1555
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