[ソース]３６万頭
投稿者： e82817 投稿日時： 2007/12/03 09:46 投稿番号： [303 / 63339]
「７６万頭」二周目（CPII）769,000 (CV = 9.4%)
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「３６万頭」三周目（CPIII）362,000 (CV = 8.0%)
IWC科学委員会報告書「Report of the Sub-committee on In-depth Assessment (IA)」
http://www.iwcoffice.org/_documents/sci_com/SCRepFiles2005/AnnexGsq.pdf
With Area V now being surveyed fully, the third circumpolar set of surveys is complete. SC/57/IA16 presented preliminary estimates of abundance obtained using the standard method for CPI, CPII and CPIII. CPI and CPII did not extend completely northwards to 60°S, thus, the circumpolar sets apply to 63.1%, 79.5% and 99.9% of the ice-free area south of 60°S. The surveys were analysed using the methods of Branch and Butterworth (2001) except that school size was estimated slightly differently, sightings and effort in BH and BL mode (high density of schools in IO and closing mode respectively) were included, and the stratum pooling method was changed. Previously, if pooling was required strata surveyed by the same vessel were pooled: in this paper northern strata were pooled together and southern strata were pooled based on the recommendations of Branch and Butterworth (2002) and Hakamada and Matsuoka (2002). Abundance estimates were obtained for each individual survey, for each Management Area and for the circumpolar set as a whole. When results from closing mode and IO mode were combined the circumpolar abundance estimates were 594,000 (CV = 12.8%), 769,000 (CV = 9.4%) and ●362,000 (CV = 8.0%) for CPI, CPII and CPIII respectively. These estimates are negatively biased because some Antarctic minke whales may be north of 60°S or inside the pack ice during the surveys, and because some whales on the trackline were likely to have been missed. After simple extrapolation to account for differences in the latitudes surveyed during each circumpolar set (but not for increasing proportions of ‘like minke’ sightings), the ratio of the circumpolar estimates was 0.92:1.00:0.39, echoing previous findings of appreciably lower CPIII estimates. Estimates for each IWC Management Area also had low CPIII:CPII ratios (between 0.17 and 0.62) except for Area VI where the CPIII estimate was higher than in CPII.
↓
「３６万頭」三周目（CPIII）362,000 (CV = 8.0%)
IWC科学委員会報告書「Report of the Sub-committee on In-depth Assessment (IA)」
http://www.iwcoffice.org/_documents/sci_com/SCRepFiles2005/AnnexGsq.pdf
With Area V now being surveyed fully, the third circumpolar set of surveys is complete. SC/57/IA16 presented preliminary estimates of abundance obtained using the standard method for CPI, CPII and CPIII. CPI and CPII did not extend completely northwards to 60°S, thus, the circumpolar sets apply to 63.1%, 79.5% and 99.9% of the ice-free area south of 60°S. The surveys were analysed using the methods of Branch and Butterworth (2001) except that school size was estimated slightly differently, sightings and effort in BH and BL mode (high density of schools in IO and closing mode respectively) were included, and the stratum pooling method was changed. Previously, if pooling was required strata surveyed by the same vessel were pooled: in this paper northern strata were pooled together and southern strata were pooled based on the recommendations of Branch and Butterworth (2002) and Hakamada and Matsuoka (2002). Abundance estimates were obtained for each individual survey, for each Management Area and for the circumpolar set as a whole. When results from closing mode and IO mode were combined the circumpolar abundance estimates were 594,000 (CV = 12.8%), 769,000 (CV = 9.4%) and ●362,000 (CV = 8.0%) for CPI, CPII and CPIII respectively. These estimates are negatively biased because some Antarctic minke whales may be north of 60°S or inside the pack ice during the surveys, and because some whales on the trackline were likely to have been missed. After simple extrapolation to account for differences in the latitudes surveyed during each circumpolar set (but not for increasing proportions of ‘like minke’ sightings), the ratio of the circumpolar estimates was 0.92:1.00:0.39, echoing previous findings of appreciably lower CPIII estimates. Estimates for each IWC Management Area also had low CPIII:CPII ratios (between 0.17 and 0.62) except for Area VI where the CPIII estimate was higher than in CPII.
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