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M3. MORATORIUM PROPOSALS
D. Chapman, W. de la Mare, S. Holt, F. Pascal

The assessments made at this meeting have again shown,
without exception, that with respect to whale stocks
currently being exploited, either (1) they are in a worse
condition than the Scientific Committee previously
thought - in some cases much worse - or (2) there is still no
sound scientific basis for their classification and the
determination of catch limits. Examples of the former case
are the NP sperm whale stock, the Peruvian Bryde's whale
and the Spanish fin whale. Examples of the latter are the
Southern Hemisphere minke whales and the North Atlantic
minke whales. It is significant that there is only one
recommendation for a small increase in catch limits and
many for decreases. There is also a number of recommendations
to maintain the same catch limits and classifications
as last year and in the years before that. These are all based
on the lack of apparent change in abundance, as indicated
by CPUE series, and refer to averages of recent catches.
Yet we know that such series tend to conceal, rather than
reveal, changes in abundance, until such time as substantial
declines have already occurred. Even series to which
appropriate corrections have been made (for example for
some improvements in catching efficiency) cannot confirm,
statistically, even over a period of as long as ten years,
a rate of decline which could lead to movement of a stock
from IMS to PS status in that time. In other cases research
efforts have led to improvements to stock size estimates
but have left us more uncertain than before about the
status of the stocks and their sustainable or replacement
yields.
During the past year the Commission sponsored a
workshop of the Scientific Committee on whale behaviour.
The draft report of that workshop is a most commendable
effort - and demonstrates how little we know either of the
effects of exploitation on whale behaviour and hence on
whale population dynamics or of the implications of whale
behaviour for our attempts to assess the stocks and the
effects of exploitation. All of this reaffirms our concern
about many of the recommendations that the Committee is
currently making on catch limits.
Hence, notwithstanding the intense efforts of the
Scientific Committee, the state of present knowledge and
assessment methods is such that no assurance can be given
that the application of the current management procedure
alone will prevent the further over-exploitation of whale
stocks. While some modification of this procedure may
improve this situation, it is not clear that any procedure can
overcome the fundamental problems.
Thus an objective view of our ability - or lack of
ability - to provide advice with sufficient accuracy and
needed caution - leads to the conclusion that a negotiated
cessation of commercial whaling, until such time as
substantial improvement has been made to methods of
assessment, is a reasonable alternative to the other
methods that have been tried, to ensure the future
productivity of whale resources.
The recent decade has seen tremendous developments in
techniques to carry out research on whales by methods that
do not involve the killing of the animal, as well as
substantial increases in research effort and expenditures
not associated with commercial whaling. There is no
reason that both of these developments cannot continue
and accelerate. With the information so gained and with
new assessment techniques that can be based on such
information as well as the rigorous testing of present
assessment technique and full analysis of data and materials
so far collected, a quantum leap in our ability to manage
whale stocks is possible.

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