対米全面テロ

１月３０日の、ワシントンポスト紙によれば、なるほどね。

ディーンは白、ケリーは青ということか。




以下本文



Kerry and the Party Establishment

By E. J. Dionne Jr.

Friday, January 30, 2004; Page A21

MERRIMACK, N.H. -- Here's the Republican Party line for the near future, coming from a conservative pundit near you: Sen. John Kerry is the establishment candidate who derailed Howard Dean's brave insurgency on behalf of a frightened party leadership.

The party-liners will then predict that Dean's intrepid supporters, intent upon real change, will -- and should -- continue to vent their rage and take Kerry apart. Many who will be saying this were, just a couple of weeks ago, trashing Dean as a dangerous, unelectable, flaky dove. That won't bother them a bit. The identity of the Democratic front-runner has just changed, so all the hostile fire must be redirected Kerry's way.

Of course, turning Kerry into a Mondale-style establishmentarian is but one line of attack. Yesterday Ed Gillespie, the Republican National Committee chairman, said that Kerry's Senate record was "one of advocating policies that would weaken our national security." You could tell how urgent it is for Republicans to make this case, since Gillespie had to concede in his speech that "Kerry's record of service in our military is honorable." On the night of the New Hampshire primary, you could already see the Republican battalions turning their guns. Mike Murphy, the brilliant Republican strategist and self-confessed spinner, told Ted Koppel on "Nightline" that "the establishment side of the party has taken control of the race again. . . . I think you'll see a rush of the party establishment to Kerry because they don't like Dean. He's an outsider."

The only problem with this story line is that Kerry's comeback came despite, not because of, the party establishment, such as it is. In the weeks before Dean's defeat in the Iowa caucuses, a large share of the Democratic leadership was in fact already making its peace with Dean and writing off Kerry, John Edwards, Wesley Clark and the rest.

It wasn't just Al Gore, who happened to agree with Dean's position on the Iraq war. Dean also won the support of the Service Employees International Union; the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees; Sen. Tom Harkin of Iowa; New Jersey Gov. Jim McGreevey and former senator Bill Bradley -- and a slew of other elected officials.

To the extent that a Democratic establishment can be plausibly defined, it is made up of the "super delegates" to the Democratic National Convention. They are the holders of elected office and party officials who automatically get to vote on the party's nominee. As of Monday, according to the CBS News/New York Times count, Dean led Kerry among super delegates, 132 to 74. And when Dean shook up his campaign on Wednesday, he turned to a respected establishment figure, Roy Neel, former lobbyist and longtime aide to Gore.

No, Kerry was not brought back by any establishment. He was brought back by rank-and-file Democratic voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. And what's striking is that while Kerry had across-the-board support in Tuesday's primary here, his constituency was decidedly non-elitist compared with Dean's.

Dean and Kerry, according to the network exit polls, split the ballots of those who said they had postgraduate degrees. But Kerry beat Dean by 2 to 1 among voters without college degrees. Kerry won easily over Dean among union members and also among gun owners. Dean carried well-to-do college towns such as Hanover and Keene. But Kerry beat Dean decisively in the blue-collar bastions of Berlin and Manchester. In Berlin, for example, it was Kerry, 1,149, and Dean, 394.

以下省略



http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A61946-2004Jan29.html